As we move through the second half of 2025, many GTA homeowners are facing one of their most significant financial milestones: mortgage renewal.

And while the idea of higher interest rates can feel intimidating, the reality isn’t all bad news. In fact, many Canadians are adjusting to these changes and some are even seeing their payments drop.

Here’s what you need to know heading into fall 2025.

Fixed-Rate Renewals Are Hitting Now – Here’s What’s Changing

Homeowners who locked into five-year fixed rates during the 2020 pandemic boom are now receiving renewal notices. Those original rates were historically low, sometimes below 2%, so today’s renewal offers, hovering between 4.5% and 5.3% for fixed terms, may come as a shock.

However, TD Bank’s latest summer report shows most borrowers will manage the adjustment without major financial setbacks.

LRenewals Aren’t All Bad News: Some Payments Are Falling

According to TD economist Maria Solovieva, Canada’s overall mortgage payment trend is easing, thanks in part to borrowers who took on short-term mortgages in 2023.

Why this matters:

• Those borrowers are now renewing into lower rates, reducing their monthly payments.
• From late 2024 through mid-2025, national mortgage interest payments declined by 1.7% on average.
• This drop helped push total mortgage payments into a slight year-over-year contraction, offering some relief.

So, even as Canadians mortgage renewal 2025 continues, the outcome depends heavily on when and how you last negotiated your rate.

What to Expect for the Rest of 2025

Heading into the final quarter of the year, here’s what TD projects:

• Mortgage service ratios (the percentage of income going toward housing payments) are improving but will likely plateau by December.
• Renewal fatigue may increase as more households reach their adjustment window.
• Those with higher household incomes and stable employment are expected to absorb the payment increases with minimal disruption.

Keep in mind: long-term rates may continue to dip slightly, providing some late-year refinancing or switching opportunities.

Non-Mortgage Debt Is the Bigger Concern Right Now

While mortgages are stabilizing, TD flags a growing issue with credit cards and personal loans:

• Non-mortgage debt now makes up 25% of total household debt but accounts for 45% of monthly debt payments.
• These debts often carry higher interest rates and shorter repayment terms, putting pressure on families already juggling increased housing costs.
• Delinquency rates in this segment are rising more quickly than in the mortgage space.

For GTA homeowners relying on credit to cover day-to-day costs, it may be time to rebalance debt and explore refinancing or consolidation options.

Tips for GTA Homeowners Renewing in Late 2025

If your mortgage is up for renewal in the next 3-6 months, you still have time to act strategically. Here’s how:

• Contact your lender early – You can start shopping rates up to 120 days before renewal.
• Don’t auto-renew – Lenders rarely offer the best rate upfront. Negotiate or compare.
• Explore refinancing – If your financial situation has improved, switching lenders or extending your amortization could ease monthly payments.
• Check your credit – A stronger credit score can help secure a better renewal rate.

This is a smart time to speak with a mortgage broker who understands both the local GTA market and the national lending landscape.

Buyers and Sellers: Mortgage Trends May Shift Your Strategy

If you’re not renewing but buying or selling in the GTA this year, Canadians mortgage renewal 2025 trends still matter.

• Buyers may face higher monthly payments compared to earlier in the year but can benefit from slightly softer home prices in some segments.
• Sellers may find motivated buyers who are more sensitive to financing costs, pricing strategically matters.
• Investors should watch cash flow closely as borrowing costs shift.

Renewal cycles affect supply, demand, and sentiment and that ripples across the entire GTA housing market

Take the Next Step With Confidence

The Canadians mortgage renewal 2025 cycle is a shift, not a setback, for most GTA households. With the right information and strategy, you can make informed decisions that support your financial goals.

“Our forecast shows steady improvement in mortgage service ratios through year-end,” says TD economist Maria Solovieva, “before hitting a manageable plateau.”

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