Canada’s mortgage market just had its second-biggest June on record. According to the Bank of Canada, uninsured mortgage originations surged 27.5% year-over-year, reaching $40.7 billion. While home sales remain moderate, the spike highlights a wave of completions from pre-construction purchases made during the pandemic.

For homebuyers, sellers, and investors in the GTA, this trend carries important signals for where the market may be heading next.

Why Borrowing Is Rising Again

At first glance, higher mortgage borrowing might seem like renewed consumer confidence. In reality, much of the increase comes from pre-construction projects sold between 2020 and 2022. As these homes finish, buyers are securing financing to close.

With nearly record-high housing completions still in the pipeline, experts expect mortgage originations to stay strong in the months ahead. For investors and homeowners, this means more inventory entering the market, potentially creating opportunities.

The Role of Canadian Mortgage Rates

A major factor driving borrowing is the shift in canadian mortgage rates. In June 2025, the average rate for uninsured mortgages sat at 4.59%, more than 1% lower than the year before. This drop gives borrowers roughly 10% more purchasing power, an encouraging sign for those entering the market.

While rates remain higher than the historic lows of 2021, they’ve eased significantly from the peaks seen in 2023. For GTA buyers, this means financing is becoming more manageable without the overheated bidding wars of past years.

What Borrowers Are Choosing

Most Canadians are leaning toward 3- to 5-year fixed-rate mortgages, which accounted for nearly 37% of all new loans in June. At an average of 4.13%, they currently offer the lowest fixed rates on the market.

Variable-rate mortgages are also regaining popularity, representing over 30% of originations. As canadian mortgage rates trend downward, more borrowers are betting on future cuts. Meanwhile, traditional 5-year fixed terms, long a Canadian favorite are making a comeback thanks to lower costs compared to recent years.

What This Means for GTA Buyers and Sellers

• For buyers: Lower borrowing costs and more housing completions could mean new opportunities, particularly in the pre-construction and resale markets.
• For sellers: A steady stream of buyers entering with financing in hand may support demand for well-priced properties.
• For investors: The surge in completions shows how past investment decisions are shaping today’s market—something to keep in mind when considering new projects.

In short, the combination of easing canadian mortgage rates and strong origination growth creates a more balanced environment. Unlike the frenzied pandemic market, today’s buyers and sellers can make informed decisions without the same level of pressure.

Looking Ahead

Mortgage borrowing is likely to remain elevated as pre-construction units continue to complete. Whether this signals long-term confidence or simply the delayed impact of past activity, the outcome for GTA buyers and sellers is clear: conditions are improving.

If you’re planning to buy, sell, or invest, now may be a strategic time to act. Understanding where canadian mortgage rates and borrowing trends are headed will help you stay one step ahead.

Take the Next Step

The GTA real estate market is shifting, and staying informed is the best way to protect your investment.

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